Nicholas Richards

 Open homes have become noticeably quieter. Across Australia, average attendance fell to 2.1 people per open home over the four weeks to 11 July, down from 3.6 at the same time last year. This is the lowest result since our series began in January 2024. We now track around 13,000 open homes each week.

The decline has taken place against a difficult backdrop for buyers. Interest rates have increased three times this year, consumer sentiment remains deeply pessimistic and continued uncertainty in the Middle East has added another source of concern. The Federal Budget has also created uncertainty for property investors through changes to negative gearing and capital gains tax.

The timing, however, is important. The slowdown was already well underway before the Budget. At the end of January, attendance was around 10 per cent higher than at the same time last year. By the week ending 9 May, it had fallen to 2.6 people per open home, 22 per cent lower than a year earlier.

Attendance continued to weaken after the Budget was handed down on 12 May, reaching 2.1 by early July. The annual decline also widened to 43 per cent. There was, however, no obvious collapse immediately after Budget night. Attendance remained at around 2.5 across the next two readings before moving lower again.

This suggests the downturn is more likely to reflect the cumulative impact of higher borrowing costs, weak confidence and broader uncertainty than any single event.

The fall has been broad-based. Sydney, Melbourne and Brisbane are now all averaging around two people per open home. Brisbane has recorded the largest annual decline, down 59 per cent.

Perth and Adelaide remain the busiest markets, with close to three attendees per inspection. Although both remain well below last year’s levels, they continue to attract more people per open home than the east-coast capitals.

There are also early signs that attendance may now be stabilising. The national four-week average has held at around 2.1 for the past three weeks, while the weekly figure has remained between 2.0 and 2.1 since mid-June.

Lower attendance does not necessarily mean lower prices. A property only needs one buyer, and well-priced homes can still attract strong competition. It does, however, point to a less frantic market, with buyers under less pressure to act quickly.

The next test will be spring. For now, open homes are much quieter than they were a year ago, but the rate of decline appears to be easing